This Week in Petroleum 5-9-07

Tale of the Stone

Yes, I know I am late getting this out. Some of you may have read about my visit to the hospital about a month ago. Long story short, I have a very large (9 mm) kidney stone that sent me to the hospital with acute renal colic, which has been described as the worst pain a person can endure. While the pain eased off over the past 4 weeks, the stone never came out. And on Tuesday morning, it once more got stuck, and I ended up back at the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary.

This time they did surgery to get the stone out, but they couldn’t retrieve it so they put in a ureteric stent which keeps pressure from building up above the stone. They said it will also help the stone to move on down and out. The are going to give it 2 weeks, and if it hasn’t come out on its own, they are going to go back in and try to break it up. The doctor told me that this thing has probably been growing for years, given that I had been eating a lot of foods and drinking a lot of liquids that contribute to kidney stone formation (but no more). I am really not a sickly person, folks. I am very active. Prior to this I hadn’t missed a day of work in 4 years due to illness. I think this is just a fluke caused by me not paying particular attention to my diet.

This Week in Petroleum

My surgery happened on Wednesday, just about the time the weekly report was released. And as soon as I woke up from the anesthesia, I wondered whether gasoline inventories turned back up. After getting back to my hospital bed, I asked the nurses if I could use the computer at the nurses’ station, and they let me check the report. (Most sites were blocked, but I was able to access the EIA, as well as The Oil Drum).

Three weeks ago, I wrote:

I will go out on a limb and say that within 2 weeks the gasoline inventory trend will reverse direction.

I was off by a week. While demand has been slowing, gasoline inventories did fall each of those two weeks, albeit less than they had previously. This week, that trend finally changed direction, with the report showing a 400,000 bbl build. According to the report, imports were up across the board:

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 11.0 million barrels per day last week, up 727,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 10.3 million barrels per day, or 457,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged over 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 327,000 barrels per day last week.

The other big story was the refinery utilization seems to be clawing its way back toward 90% (but as several people have noted, they haven’t been quite the same since Hurricane Katrina):

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.3 million barrels per day during the week ending May 4, up 174,000 barrels per day from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 89.0 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased compared to the previous week, averaging over 8.9 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production also increased, averaging 4.2 million barrels per day.

Is the Crisis Averted?

No, not by a long shot. I have been warning of potentially record high gasoline prices for weeks now. On Monday, MSNBC announced that according to the Lundberg Survey, the previous record has been eclipsed:

Gasoline prices have surged to a record nationwide average of $3.07 per gallon, nearly 20 cents higher than two weeks earlier, oil industry analyst Trilby Lundberg said Sunday.

The previous record was $3.03 per gallon on Aug. 11, 2006.

According to the EIA (they provided an extensive discussion of gasoline prices this week), we are just short of a record:

One of the most visible records in gasoline markets is the U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline. At $3.054 per gallon on EIAโ€™s latest weekly retail price survey (May 7), this price is just a penny-and-a-half shy of the all-time record (in nominal dollars) of $3.069 per gallon set on September 5, 2005, about a week after Hurricane Katrina ravaged Gulf Coast oil production and refineries.

Gasoline imports, while higher, are still running well behind last year’s levels. Given that we are heading into high-demand season with record low inventories, we may have not seen the peak in prices yet. However, there was certainly a fear premium built in that will be somewhat deflated with this week’s upturn. But unless the upturn is sustained, the pressure on prices will remain.

31 thoughts on “This Week in Petroleum 5-9-07”

  1. As I have mentioned, my wife went through exactly the same kidney stone problems with a stone about the same size. She had a stent in for 7 weeks and then went back for surgery a few weeks ago. The surgery went well, they broke up the stone and she is fine now. I am back to being her biggest pain.

    Best wishes,
    Bob

  2. Robert,

    Let me first wish you all the best healthwise. It sounds horrible just reading about it and I sincerely hope that you feel much better soon.

    I’d also like to point out that the Lundberg retail price survey does not come out every week, but twice a month. They missed the week in which EIA shows the record (September 5, 2005) for retail gasoline prices, which explains why the Lundberg is reporting we reached a new record this week.

    Finally, I must admit, I wonder about the mental health of someone who wakes up from anesthesia and the first thing they want to check out is the level of U.S. gasoline inventories! I knew our data was much sought after, but I never realized the extent! ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Doug

  3. She had a stent in for 7 weeks and then went back for surgery a few weeks ago.

    That stent is very uncomfortable. It feels like something chewing on my kidney. I will be glad to get this thing out.

    Cheers, RR

  4. Finally, I must admit, I wonder about the mental health of someone who wakes up from anesthesia and the first thing they want to check out is the level of U.S. gasoline inventories!

    I have energy on the brain 24/7. ๐Ÿ™‚

    So, do you think prices have peaked? I haven’t done the analysis, but I don’t know if we have ever gone into summer with such low gasoline inventories. And gasoline imports are running well behind last year’s levels.

    Cheers, RR

  5. Robert, I’m glad your limb didn’t break, but what I really want to know is, what are these foods and liquids that contribute to kidney stone formation?

    I had a kidney stone and renal colic in February, and its not an experience I want to repeat.

  6. Robert,

    If I had to guess now, I’d expect a small increase in the U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline when our survey comes out on Monday. Whether we hit the record of 306.9 c/g is difficult to say, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we come up a little short of that. After that, we expect to see prices drift down, although Memorial Day is always a question. Right now, our expectations are that prices might rise again in late July and in August. Whether this increase would be higher than the prices we’re seeing now is too difficult to predict right now. Our forecast has the average monthly price in August very similar to those this month.

    Doug

  7. Doug – I expected retail prices to rise as well, but here in Houston some stations went down. ref UNL at our flagship station dropped from 2.81 to 2.71 overnight. I am seeing a $0.15 spread around west Houston.

    Like Robert, I used to be an LP analyst and blender – hooked on reading the EIA weekly. I have been thinking about energy 24/7 for nearly 30 years. Either you love this businss or you didn’t survive the massive layoffs of the 80’s and 90’s. After my daughter was born, I snuck off to the waiting room to call our secretary to have her read prices off the Reuters terminal so I could calculate the crack spreads.

  8. Robert, I’m glad your limb didn’t break, but what I really want to know is, what are these foods and liquids that contribute to kidney stone formation?

    Most kidney stones are calcium oxalate. High oxalate in the blood leads to kidney stone formation. The following foods are all high in oxalate: rhubarb, spinach, strawberries, chocolate, wheat bran, nuts, beets, and tea. Colas, with a high phospate content, have also been implicated.

    Prior to my attack last month, I had eaten spinach 5 nights in a row. I had also had strawberries, chocolate, nuts, tea, and a couple of Cokes. So, I had really loaded up on the bad foods, even though many of them are full of nutrients. Everything in moderation.

    Cheers, Robert

  9. I snuck off to the waiting room to call our secretary to have her read prices off the Reuters terminal so I could calculate the crack spreads.

    Right after my surgery, one of my coworkers stopped by to visit me. He pulled up short when he saw me sitting at the nurses station reading the inventory report only 15 minutes after coming out of surgery. He said “I don’t believe this.” ๐Ÿ™‚

    Cheers, RR

  10. I had a stone a long time ago and my doctor told me to drink more beer.

    Just about to finish my second one right now. ๐Ÿ™‚

    I have to be careful, though, as I am also taking codeine.

    Cheers, Robert

  11. LOL rohar1

    Have a good healing experience RR and mind what Fat Man said. My old Dad suffers from hell stones and managed to get a family doc to give him an emergency supply of heavy dope to stem the surprise at 2 a.m.

  12. Couldn’t they have used a shockwave bathtub (lithotripsy) to shatter the stone into smithereens?

    You can prevent oxalates from being absorbed by taking calcium and magnesium supplements with the high-oxalate foods. That way you get the stones to form in the GI tract where they don’t hurt.

  13. Couldn’t they have used a shockwave bathtub (lithotripsy) to shatter the stone into smithereens?

    They discussed this, and said that due to the location that would require an incision. They wanted to try the stent first. But I don’t know if I will last 2 weeks with this stent. It is very uncomfortable.

    Cheers, Robert

  14. Robert

    My best wishes for a speedy recovery.

    I hope the National Health Service meets your expectations.

    For those of us who live in the UK, today is a sad day. Tony Blair has announced his resignation as Prime Minister. Although many of his decisions (particularly to invade Iraq) are questionable, and I think he has been slow to grasp the nettle on global warming, there is no doubt that he is a man of extraordinary intelligence and charisma.

    He is not wrong when he says Britain is a very changed place from 10 years ago. I in particular notice the progress of the Peace Process in Northern Ireland, with terrorist groups announcing their disarmament. And also the much greater public acceptance of homosexuality.

    Although the judgement of history upon him will really rest upon the outcome of Iraq, I think we can say that he has been an exceptional politician, and an exceptional leader.

    For you, my best hopes for a swift recovery.

    Valuethinker

  15. Do you know why U.S. gasoline imports are significantly below last year?

    If you look back historically, it looks like last year’s import level was an anomaly, probably brought on by very high gasoline prices. While gas prices this year have been high, imports have been more in line with prior years. So, I don’t know that the odds of a repeat of last year are good, and if that’s the case then gas prices are still headed higher. We depended on those imports last year to keep us supplied; this year they may not be available.

    Cheers, RR

  16. My best wishes for a speedy recovery.

    Thank you, and thanks to everyone for their thoughts. I am going to pay much closer attention to my diet in the future.

    As far as Tony Blair, I agree with you. I have always had a favorable impression of him, and I feel like we (the U.S.) are responsible from dragging him into Iraq. I know he has taken a beating over that.

    Cheers, RR

  17. Valuethinker wrote:
    I think he [Tony Blair] has been slow to grasp the nettle on global warming
    Blair slow?! He is a million miles ahead of George Bush and John Howard who are both still in denial.

  18. Robert,
    Glad to hear you’re recovering from the surgery. I hope the problem resolves itself in the coming weeks. However, I have to shake my head in wonder at someone whose first thought on coming out of anaesthesia is U.S. gasoline supplies! Amazing! I bet your co-worker was stunned!

    Did you get treatment on the NHS and if so, what did you think? I’d be interested to hear an American’s take on the relative quality of healthcare.

    Best Regards,

    Cuchulainn

  19. Did you get treatment on the NHS and if so, what did you think? I’d be interested to hear an American’s take on the relative quality of healthcare.

    I did, and I have been very pleased with the quality both times. The system we have in the U.S. is really a shame in many ways. Health care is something that you really don’t want to have to weigh your finances against. It is nice to just go in and get the problem taken care of, without wondering whether you can afford it.

    Cheers, Robert

  20. carbonsink

    re Blair and global warming

    we have talked a lot, but done little. The European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is a model of how entrenched groups have extracted a lot of value (billions of euros) without much evidence that CO2 emissions are being reduced.

    Perhaps a small thing, but Ireland managed to do away with 90% of supermarket plastic bags, why can’t we? Why haven’t we?

    I know about Bush, Howard and Harper. But I don’t think we can set the standard for world leaders and global warming by the leaders who still deny that it is a problem.

    That would be like giving Neville Chamberlain an award for leading the resistance to Adolph Hitler.

    ‘grasping the nettle’ on global warming means making some hard choices, and talking the language of hard choices to the general public.

    So far, the electorate is at best confused, and at worst thinks there is still a meaningful debate. And certainly everyone is promising gain without pain.

    I think historians are going to see 9-11 and the war on terror as an almost fatal distraction from the real issue of the 21st century, which is the human impact on the environment.

    Valuethinker

  21. Doug & Robert

    If you look at the latest WalMart results, they are the worst ever in terms of sales growth for that company.

    WalMart is the pulse of ‘working class America’. Probably most families that make less than, say, $80k a year spend at least $1,000 a year at WalMart.

    My conclusion is working class America is hurting due, at least in part, to higher gas prices.

    And also that the US economy is a lot weaker, on the domestic side, than we think.

    Which leads me to conclude that gasoline consumption this summer might be lower than otherwise expected. People are going to be cautious about spending their money.

    Valuethinker

  22. Valuethinker,

    That may indeed be the case, especially given prices higher than $3 per gallon. Alternatively, though, it could be a sign that consumers are cutting back their purchases at Walmart and other places, but not on gasoline. Time will tell which is the case, I suppose.

    Doug MacIntyre

  23. I think historians are going to see 9-11 and the war on terror as an almost fatal distraction from the real issue of the 21st century, which is the human impact on the environment.

    Exactly so – couldn’t have come at a worse time, the defining issues of the early 21rst century will be energy and the environment.

  24. Perhaps a small thing, but Ireland managed to do away with 90% of supermarket plastic bags, why can’t we? Why haven’t we?

    Where I shop, they give you 5 cents off per bag you bring in to be reused. Sadly, I’m the only person I ever see taking advantage of this great offer.

  25. “Health care is something that you really don’t want to have to weigh your finances against.”

    Very well put. I think even the most free-market minded of us can agree with that.

  26. Best wishes for your healt, Mr. Rapier

    Here in Italy gasoline “Benzina” in about 1.30 euro per litre, and Diesel “gasolio” about 1.10.

    I have never seen so many SUV around like those last two years. Most of them Diesel.

  27. “Health care is something that you really don’t want to have to weigh your finances against.”

    Very well put. I think even the most free-market minded of us can agree with that.

    Yes I can. What is this but a demand that somebody else should pay for my surgery?

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