Energy at the WSJ

25 thoughts on “Energy at the WSJ”

1. Interesting note at Greencarcongress today about Wal Mart implementing plans to cut fleet fuels consumption in half. This is what I mean when I talk about crude oil price spikes “permanently” damaging the market.
   How long until UPS gos to PHEVs?

2. Also in this WSJ energy section is a story on Royal Dutch Shell commting to a .650 mbd GTL factory in Qatar, which has huge gas reserves.
   Meanwhile Sasol is building a 1 mbd CTL plant in Indonesia.
   You know, a mbd here, and an mbd there, and soon you are talking about some serious mbds.
   The Peak Oil scare stories are losing mouch of their ooomph.

3. Hi Robert,

   Could you explain how the oil-producing countries are able to keep the prices of gas so low within their borders? Assuming the state-run oil companies are doing the refining as well, is this just a loss they absorb?

4. “Meanwhile Sasol is building a 1 mbd CTL plant in Indonesia.”

   Benny — you deserve high praise for predicting glut & low prices when that was not the conventional wisdom. But the wheel is still turning.

   Never forget the natural decline of oil & gas fields — anything from 50% per year for a new shale gas well down to a sedate 3% per year for an old oil field nearing abandonment.

   If we guess that the average is 4% per year, then this year's 80 MMBD will become next years 77 MMBD — an unavoidable loss of 3 million barrels per day.

   Let's wish Sasol every success. The world would need 3 new plants like that every year just to keep production at its current level.

5. Benny said
   How long until UPS goes PHEVs?

   They are doing better than PHEVs, they are going to be field testing hydraulic hybrids this year. See a story here
   or a video here

   The hydraulic hybrid reclaims braking energy in a pressurized tank. I guess it is best suited for large vehicles and would be great on something like a garbage truck. For plug in charging you would need an electric motor to turn the hydraulic pump.

   I think Ford has done some work on this in the past. I don’t know if they can get this to scale down for a reasonable passenger vehicle. But there is a chance that this type of vehicle could do better than an electric hybrid. Both electric and hydraulic have their pros and cons.

   What will the thugs think of that Benny?

6. Kinu and Dennis-

   If oil ever stays above $100 for more than a eyeblink, I expect every fleet in the world to convert over to something cheaper than oil, mainly electricity.

   Oil fields do deplete—and they were depleting back in 1979, when we went through another oil scare. But any number of strikes have been made, in the brief window when oil prices were higher 2004-2008. Chevron just announced another one in the Gulf, and Tupi is so big. Russia has an endless frontier in Siberia.

   As for CTLs, I see no problem wih building a few every year. Sasol long ago proved the technology, although I am sure people will just get better abd better at it, if it is widely adopted.

   Even Shell's gigantic, epic GTL plant in Qatar is under $20 billion, That will make .650 mbd a day.

   Don't forget we have a few mbd in palm oil pantations coming on stream.

   The USA just wasted $1 trillion in Iraq. We could have built 50 GTL plants for that.

   Sure, oil may go over $100 again. But never underestimate man's ability to invent, innovate, adpat. Free enterprise and capitalism can cut cruelly at times, but man it is a creative format.

   I see now Venezuela is saying $20 oil is possible. That means $10 oil is probable.

   Can you imagine> OPEC took 4 mbd off the market, and we are drowning in oil. Soon, cheating takes place.

7. I’d like to see a nuclear plant making Hydrogen and Oxygen and feeding it into a CTL plant. Hydrogen is a great fuel especially when it is attached to carbon.

8. “But any number of strikes have been made, in the brief window when oil prices were higher 2004-2008.”

   Those fields won’t be developed at current prices Benny. They sure as heck won’t get any attention at $10 per barrel. Can palm oil,GTL, and CTL replace 3M lost bpd each and every year? Heck,I’m not even sure CTL is profitable with current prices.

   “The USA just wasted $1 trillion in Iraq.”

   Money well spent. Iraq is the domino that’ll topple the other 21 arab totalitarian regimes. I’d like to see a United Democratic Nations replace the UN. And I’d like to see this UDN take out one repressive regime at a time,starting with the worst offender. People shouldn’t have to live under a Mugabe or Kim Ping Pong in this day and age. It just ain’t right….and we can do better.

9. It baffles me that no one seems to imagine what would have happened if Saddam was still around, sitting on the world’s fourth largest oil reserves, as oil shot up. Instead, we now have a, shall we say, slightly more amenable government in place to benefit when oil begins its next run up. Even better, the decades of war and sanctions have kept their field depletion lower, which means room to ramp up just as other countries are peaking. Was it worth a trillion dollars? History will judge.

10. Re: Kinuachdrach

    The IEA’s recent report put avg. decline at 5.2%. Re-do your figures.

    Re: Maury

    Dude, if you can’t figure out the BuCheney mess was a total waste of time, money and human life, you’re more delusional than can be fixed. Heck, this isn’t even an insult, it’s an observation. Anti-AGW types have the same blinkered type view of the world.

    Re: Anaonymous

    Are you aware of how little oil is pumped out of Iraq, particularly when compared to pre-invasion? There’s, what, maybe 500 m/d more than in 2002/3? Hell, they’re still making up for what didn’t get pumped because of the war.

    Besides which, that’s 2 trillion dollars that was siphoned off from real solutions such as alternative energy, retrofitting buildings, etc., not to mention dealing with the financial crisis, which the war helped create. (FYI, wars have an initial seemingly positive effect on the economy – assuming your nation is not being bombed to pieces – but the true effects become clear as they drag down the economy after the fifth or sixth year.)

    Cheers

11. “Dude, if you can’t figure out the BuCheney mess was a total waste of time, money and human life, you’re more delusional than can be fixed.”

    Am I delusional for thinking regime change in Germany and Japan 60 years ago were good things too? These Arab dictatorships have found Amreeka a convenient scapegoat for their inability to provide 300M people with a decent standard of living. These despots have a lock on the media,and until that changes we’ll be the target of frustrated suicide bombers.

    Iraq proves Arabs can have a functioning democracy. It’s neighbors,including Syria,Saudi Arabia,and Iran,will be watching intently. And they’ll want some of that freedom stuff too. Count on that.

12. Could you explain how the oil-producing countries are able to keep the prices of gas so low within their borders? Assuming the state-run oil companies are doing the refining as well, is this just a loss they absorb?

    Those countries tend to have nationalized oil industries. The fuel costs are heavily subsidized. It is essentially revenue that the governments are giving up by not selling the product at market prices.

    RR

13. ccpo

    I’m a bit puzzled, as you seem to have missed my point. Yes, before the war, Iraq was pumping 2.6m bpd, according to Wikipedia. That was with sanctions. Imagine that Iraq finally convinces the world to lift them. They were, after all, making progress before the war. Or, that during the oil spike, a desperate world decides everyone needs to pump full blast so sanctions are lifted. Iraq scales up to 5m bpd. Saddam now sits on that…and now has the resources to perform whatever mischief he wishes.

    That, along with the positive effects of democratizing Iraq a la Germany and Japan must be weighed against the cost and lost opportunities of that trillion dollars (by the way, where did you get 2 trillion?). I have no clue what the balance will show, which is why I said history will decide. If Iraq turns into Sweden and turns out to have 300 billion barrels in reserves, then I would suggest it came out alright in the end. Heck, even if they turn into a Nigeria with that much oil, better that than psychotic dictator with that much oil. Or it could all fall apart. We’ll see.

    PS Where did you get that the war caused the financial crisis? I always read that it was the credit boom triggered by low Fed rates.

    JR

14. ccpo also makes the common energy independence mistake saying that building improvements reduces dependency on foreign oil. Other than some heating oil in the northeast, and allowing for gas imports from Canada, the US is energy independent when it comes to electricity and natural gas. Building efficiency would likely reduce our demand for coal, not oil.

    He also overestimates the cost of the war. The consistent number I’ve seen is around $500-600 billion.

    Dennis Moore – we built a hydraulic hybrid in college. It worked great. It had a small gasoline engine to maintain pressure in the main tank. That was back in 1978!

15. It should be remembered we have established in Iraq an Islamic, Shiite government, one that seems to be making buddies with Iran. Maliki and Ahmendinejad are pictured hugging each other every season.
    Saddam was a cruel, tinpot strongman, but secular. It was illegal to ask someone their religion under Saddam.
    Moreover, under Shiite rule, Iraq is giving its largest oil contracts to China, commie China. The Islamic Iraq has also wiped out women’s rights, and previously tolerated religious minorities have left the country.
    As it is, I suspect Iraqi oil production will ramp up in years ahead, which I am all for. I hope the country propers, but fear under Islamic rule it will go backwards in many directions.
    But how this was worth $1 trillion, even from the most realpolitik of viewpoints, is beyond me. We have laid the groundwork for a powerful Iran-Iraq alliance.

16. King-
    You have no idea the Iraq bills we are facing at the VA. I have a friend who works at VA in Los Angeles. The good news is we get our injured troops into medical care ASAP, and they live. The bad news is we have to pay for them for the next 50 years.
    This year is at least $1 trillion. I still don’t see the upside.
    For that matter, try building a Christian church in Baghdad, and report back to me.

17. Dennis Morre–
    Loved the story on hydrauic hybrids. I still think PHEVs will be the fleet vehicle of the future. A UPS van can certainly handle a large battery, can charge up at night, and never has to go too fast.
    Oil watchers: According to the WSJ today, Taiwan’s exports in January are off 44 percent.
    I don’t see how the Mother Of All Gluts (in oil) can be avoided. 2009 (sadly) will mark a year of serious contraction in the world economy. Even when the global GDP was growing, world oil demand had flatlined, due to accumulating conservation efforts.
    We are going to see a double-digit decline in crude oil demand.
    The only question is whether the price of a barrel of oil will stay in double digits.

18. Benny, there are Christian churches all over Iraq. While Maliki’s party is Islamist on paper,they’re a lot more secular in practice. SCIRI and the Sadrists are hardline turban wearers,and they both lost big in elections last week. Women do have rights in Iraq today. A lot more rights than ANYONE had under Sadman’s regime. A free Iraq is much more likely to bring down the totalitarian regime in Iran than the other way around. Millions of Iranian religious pilgrims visit Iraq each year. And they each go home with tales to tell. We’re going to witness the mad mullahs being shown the door soon. Iranians will do it themselves. And Iraq will be the reason. How much would you say that would be worth?

    On a side note,Iran and Libya halted their WMD programs when we invaded Iraq in ’03. Granted,it’s hard to quantify the cost of nuclear weapons that weren’t built or used. Still,it has to be worth a buck or two.

19. Maury-
    The Christian and Jewish communities largely left Iraq after the fall of Saddam. Women are wearing the tents again.
    Gone are Western-style bars, nightlife etc.
    Anyway, I am with you, and hope for the best in Iraq, and that it and Iran join the developed world in protecting free speech and adopting secular governments.
    That will be a great day. I am not sure it will happen, though.
    I am sure oil is tanking again today.

20. Maury-
    From CNN 12/08
    By Joe Sterling
    CNN

    (CNN) — It’s a bittersweet Christmas season for Joseph Kassab, who grew up in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime and now lives in Detroit, Michigan. Tempering the season’s joy is his concern for fellow Iraqi Christians, who have endured killings, displacement and daily intimidation.

    An Iraqi policeman checks security in a Baghdad church where midnight Mass will be celebrated Wednesday.

    1 of 3 Christians in Iraq face a “bleak future,” said Kassab, executive director of the Chaldean Federation of America, a nonprofit group that helps Iraqi Christians.

    “We are heading for a demise,” he said. “It’s getting to the point where it might be an ethnic cleansing in the future.”

    A recent U.S. government report focused on the plight of Iraq’s Christian minority. U.S. diplomats and legislators are worried, too.

    “I think the Christians are caught in the middle of a horrible situation,” said U.S. Rep. Anna Eshoo, a California Democrat of Assyrian and Armenian ancestry.

    She said Iraqi Christians are suffering as a result of “religious cleansing,” and she has urged more help for minorities who have fled their homes in Iraq.”

    Maury- It is one of the great oddities that we Americans (a secular, Judeo-Christian nation)established a Shiite, Islamic government in Iraq, not a secular government. I never understod that. And Maliki is best buds with Ahmendinijad, just look up stuff on the Web.

    We spent $1 trillion to accomplish that. And now Iraq is giving the best oil contracts to commie China.

    I just don’t understand it, or why anyone regards this as a victory, even by realpolitik standards.

21. “If oil ever stays above $100 for more than a eyeblink, I expect every fleet in the world to convert over to something cheaper than oil, mainly electricity.”

    The world has had the benefit of a highly relevant long-term trial.

    Euro govs have for decades taxed vehicle fuels at the retail level at eye-popping rates. People there have been paying the equivalent at times of over $250/Bbl.

    And the consequence has been — ever more freeways packed with ever more fossil-fueled cars. Yes, some of the cars are smaller — but there are lots & lots of them. And no alternative fuel has made any headway at all.

    The only thing we know for sure is that the price at which some hypothetical alternative fuel becomes competitive is above $250/Bbl.

22. “She said Iraqi Christians are suffering as a result of “religious cleansing,” and she has urged more help for minorities who have fled their homes in Iraq.”

    They were targeted by Al Qaida Benny. Does that really surprise you? Iraq’s neighbors threw everything they had at Iraq,in a desperate effort to sabotage a democratic government. Saudi Arabia provided the suicide bombers. Syria provided them with training and safe passage. Iran tried a Khomeini style takeover,and backed Al Sadr with money and weapons.

    Maliki can’t ignore Iran any more than we can ignore Canada or Mexico. Yes,he’s visited Tehran. And Amman,Damascus,and all the other capitals in the region. He ordered the police and military to provide extra protection to the Christian community btw. Churches are guarded by police. Bishops get a military escort. Iraq’s government is no more Islamist than the US government is Christian. Yes,the turban heads would love to take over. But,the Quietist strain of thought practiced by Sistani has so far won out. Quietists believe clerics belong in the mosque,not in government.

23. “We spent $1 trillion to accomplish that. And now Iraq is giving the best oil contracts to commie China.”

    China is more willing to take risks. Iraq’s oil minister has despaired over the lack of interest shown by western oil companies so far. There are western,including American,companies operating in Kurdish areas. Shell got a contract to capture NG in one of Iraq’s biggest oil fields,in a relatively safe area in the south. Security conditions have greatly improved lately. Western companies are showing more interest in the latest round of bidding.

    If you want to go into this stuff in detail,drop by IraqiMojo Benny. I’ve been following developments in Iraq since the invasion,and visit Mojo’s blogspot pretty much every day.

24. Kinu-
    I have to concede the Euros stayed with their cars, although they use a lot less oil than we do.
    However, until now, they did not have the choice of PHEVs (and even not yet). They are not very inventive, the Euros.
    In America, as soon as oil prices went up, we nearly commercialized the PHEV. Japan doing the same.
    Kinu, ask yourself: If gasoline goes to $6 a gallon, would you buy a PHEV that get 40 miles on the charge, and 50 mpg after that?
    The PHEV option did not exist for Euros. Soon, it will.
    It is the death ray for OPEC. If OPEC/Russia engineers a thirs price spike, they may find they permanently damage world oil markets.
    Maury: Be careful about using any one source of info on any topic. IraqiMojo seems to scour the news for positive developments. Kinda like me, when I look for signs of an oil price collapse. I seize at every straw. Later, I have to balance myself.
    But, if you even go into some of the websites to which IraqiMojo is linked, you find stories about females enduring horrible repression in the new Iraq.
    Oddly, IraqiMojo celebrates Blackwater being given the boot from Iraq, something Bush would never do.
    And Mr. Maliki still seems to want to be chummy with Ahmendinijed. They meet four times a year, hugs all around. Maliki has vacation homes in Iran.
    I hope for the best in Iraq. But the USA spending a $1 trillion to build an Shia-Islamic alliance of Iran-Iraq seems odd to me. Commie China is benefitting hugely.
    I wish that money had been spent at home, building CTL plants, PHEVs, nuke plants whatever.

25. Kinu, ask yourself: If gasoline goes to $6 a gallon, would you buy a PHEV that get 40 miles on the charge, and 50 mpg after that?
    At $40K a pop, it’s not a given, Benny. Especially if that 50 mpg comes from an underpowered engine. Or the 40 mile range comes from $0.15/kWh grid power.

    In America, as soon as oil prices went up, we nearly commercialized the PHEV.
    You mean like we nearly invented the hydrogen economy?

    The PHEV option did not exist for Euros. Soon, it will.
    Careful with the predictions, Mr. Nostradamus!

    It is the death ray for OPEC.
    Ditto! Even though I tend to agree, for very different reasons. OPEC clearly cannot prop up oil prices when demand collapses. And before that they clearly showed they cannot keep oil prices at reasonable levels either. The point to their existence then?

    Commie China is benefitting hugely.
    Don’t forget how Iran benefitted, by having the US Army stuck in their neighbor (“We can’t get nuclear weapons because the Great Satan will… Oh! Well yes! I’m sorry, never mind…”).

    And the one that got away: you know the country that supplied 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers, 90% of the foreign fighters in Iraq, much of Wahhabism’s funding including the students in Afganistan, and the less tolerant madrassas in the tribal regions… All while Bush and Cheney, in their most nauseating performance to date (and that is saying something) begged for more oil…

    I wish that money had been spent at home, building CTL plants, PHEVs, nuke plants whatever.
    Hate to rain on your hippie-world-peace dreams, Benny, but no amount of money can buy technology that does not exist. As Government Motors is about to show, if I can borrow the Nostradamus hat for a second…

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