Given all the media hype about peak oil demand — which is supposed to come about largely as a result of the explosive growth of electric vehicles (EVs) — you might be forgiven for missing the news that U.S. gasoline demand just hit a new all-time high. This new demand record comes despite EV sales that tripled in the U.S. from 2012 to 2016.
My news feed tends to be dominated by headlines like Goldman Sachs warns of peak oil demand by 2020 (even though that headline doesn’t accurately reflect what the article said). But do the facts contradict the narrative? Sensationalism dominates the news, and the idea that oil demand will begin to decline shortly is definitely sensationalistic. I believe that this is one reason oil prices remain depressed because it perpetuates expectations that oil’s days will soon be at an end.
Every Wednesday the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Last week’s report noted that Finished Motor Gasoline supplied in the U.S. for the week ending 7/28/17 was 9.842 million barrels per day (BPD). That is a record, and not just seasonally. Last week’s gasoline demand was the highest weekly U.S. gasoline consumption on record. The top four weekly gasoline consumption numbers on record have all occurred in 2017 — not exactly what one might expect given all of the “peak demand” articles that are all the rage.
Not only are we using record amounts of gasoline in the U.S., but refiners are also exporting record amounts of crude oil and finished products — more than 3 million BPD (even though the U.S. is still a net importer of crude oil). And just to be clear, the gasoline consumption numbers reported above do not include gasoline that is exported. The EIA specifically notes:
Product supplied: In general, product supplied of each product in any given period is computed as follows: field production, plus refinery production, plus imports, plus unaccounted-for crude oil (plus net receipts when calculated on a PAD District basis) minus stock change, minus crude oil losses, minus refinery inputs, and minus exports.
California is responsible for nearly half of all EV sales, with explosive growth in recent years. You might expect to at least see a decline in gasoline demand there. But gasoline demand in California has climbed each year since 2013 and is on track to rise again this year. Since 2013, gasoline demand in California has grown by 850 million gallons (~6%).
The reason gasoline consumption continues to increase despite the rapid growth of EVs is that the population continues to grow. I believe that this variable is generally missed by those calling for a short-term peak in oil demand. The problem is more complex than “More EVs = less oil consumption”, but that’s how it’s being treated by some analysts. Thus, as a result of this glaring blind spot, it should come as no surprise that gasoline demand trends don’t match the narrative that is being constructed.
7 thoughts on “The U.S. Sets A New Gasoline Demand Record”
One minor quibble: you write, “The top four weekly gasoline consumption numbers on record have all occurred in 2017 — not exactly what one might expect given all of the “peak demand” articles that are all the rage.”
In fact, that is exactly what we would expect if peak demand were to happen in 2020, or even next year. Until we actually reach and pass peak demand, demand will continue to set records.
In very rough terms, we will probably hit peak demand at about the point where growth in the EV fleet roughly equals the population growth (in raw numbers, not percentage terms). We are still adding more people than EVs, but the growth rate of EVs is much higher. Could those lines cross in 2020? I don’t know, but if EVs stay on the same exponential growth curve, it won’t be long.
What I would expect to see is for growth to slow, flatten, and then start to decline. I might expect the oddball record, but not multiple year-over-year records still taking place. I certainly wouldn’t expect oil demand to be accelerating: https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-demand-is-accelerating-iea-says-1499932807
That 6% growth in gasoline consumption in California since 2013 is faster than the population growth. According to the excel spreadsheet available at
California’s population grew by 3.4% from 38.2 million in 2013 to 39.5 million in 2017.
The lower gasoline prices is probably encouraging people to drive more miles per year.
No one is predicting peak Electric Vehicle. Electric cars are being adopted by those who are worried about the environment but don’t worry so much about the environment that they would put up with public transit (which is an even cleaner but inconvenient option). This group is a small subset of the entire population once they have electric cars demand growth will slow.
Yah, electric vehicles claim of low maintenance cost is a myth. The ICE is pretty much bullet proof and doesn’t suffer costly loss of performance over the years. Electric drive may be the future, but batteries are expensive, heavy, and lack energy storage. All bets are off if the industry comes up with miracle battery, but as I understand, nothing shocking in the works other than hydrogen. My money would be on fuel cell replacing all fuel and battery transportation.
The environmental argument for BEV is losing ground as well. Only if the grid fully transformed would this be true. It won’t happen in our lifetime. Tailpipe emission improving, too. Read one report that tail pipe emission were better air quality than some ambient air. Also, Ag department analysis of corn ethanol was -34% carbon compared to gasoline. Expected to go to over -70% in ’20. That rating includes a bogus 22% deduction for ILUC penalty. Really, a modern hybrid operating on mid level ethanol mix will always beat grid power for pollution concerns.
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